Maybank IB revises upward current account surplus projection

Tuesday, 15 Nov 2022 12:14 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 15 ― Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) has revised its projection on Malaysia’s 2022 current account surplus to RM34 billion, or 2.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), from RM22.5 billion, 1.3 per cent of GDP, previously.

In 2021, the current account surplus totalled RM58.7 billion, or 3.8 per cent of GDP.

The investment bank said current account surplus in third quarter (Q3) 2022 jumped to RM14.1 billion (3.1 per cent of GDP) compared with RM4.4 billion (1.0 of GDP) in the previous quarter mainly on larger surplus in the goods trade account at RM43.0 billion.

Meanwhile, services trade deficit narrowed to RM9.6 billion in Q3 against RM12.3 billion in Q2, with a smaller deficit in transportation services, and a surplus in travel services amid the reopening of international borders.

“As the economic recovery momentum continues on reopening, the pick-up in domestic demand, elevated global commodity prices as well as weaker ringgit versus US dollar will lead to a higher import growth while the export growth is facing external headwinds from the ongoing global economic downturn,” it said in a note today.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook in October 2022, has maintained the global real GDP growth forecast for 2022 at 3.2 per cent but revised downward growth for 2023 to 2.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent projected earlier.

While the world trade volume growth for 2022 has been revised upward to 4.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent, trade growth projection for 2023 was cut to 2.5 per cent from 3.2 per cent. ― Bernama